Dagens Næringsliv - DN.no

15 Oct 2007

Trendlines, RSI, Pricechart with example - Marine Harvest Group (MHG)


There is much talk about how to use oscillators when doing technical analysis. Some people rely solemnly on them while others would not touch them. But how can we use oscillators effectively?
The key is to have a setup of indicators that "work" together. One suggestion is to use a price chart, adx and rsi. ADX is used for telling if the stock is trending or moving sideways. Low adx values means sideway movement for the stock price while high values means the stock is trending.
Now what is high and low values for adx? As a rule of thumb the market is in a trend when adx shows values above 20. ADX by itself can not tell if the stock is moving up or down. What we know about oscillator indicators is that they work best when the market is moving sideways. If the market is in a trend either up or down you need to use trendlines also in the oscillator (oscillator in this article is rsi). One more thing about the rsi oscillator, usually when the market is moving sideways a value for rsi above 70 is indicating that the stock is overbought and is likely to fall soon, while a value below 30 is indicating that the stock is oversold and is likely to rise soon.
Lets look at one example.
I have picked out the Norwegian company called Marine Harvest Group.
Looking at the price chart we see that the trendlines are falling but there is some support at about 5,90 at the almost horizontal trend line. So is our interpretation that there is a falling trend valid? Looking at adx we see that the value is 28,576 indicating that the stock is in a trend. From the price chart we could see that the trend was a falling trend and should therefor be fairly valid. The stock is in a trend but we still choose to look at the oscillator called rsi to see if we get some extra information. We have drawn trendlines that coincide with the trendlines in the price chart. From this we have some idea of how the stock could develop the coming days. RSI and the price chart give room for a stock price rise to about 6,50 -6,60 but the potential downside is to about 5,90 where we find support from our horizontal trendline.

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